With Relief Slow to Arrive, Earthquake Death Toll Continues to Rise in Kashmir

By M.M. Ali


	In the absence of computer centers, playgrounds or soccer fields, young Palestinian boys play a game based on the sights and sounds of occupation (Staff Photo M.M. Ali).

THE DEATH toll continues to rise in the earthquake-stricken areas of Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir, and may soon reach 100,000 as winter sets in. Close to a million people have no shelter or protection from the cold, and cases of pneumonia and hypothermia are increasing by the day. Despite Islamabad’s immediate response to the disaster, additional relief has yet to arrive inthe affected area of the Himalayan foothills, where the roads have caved in, stranding desperate survivors.

International assistance has been slow in coming and, to date, inadequate. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf called a meeting of the international community at which he appealed to donors to increase their relief efforts. After visiting Pakistan and the quake-ravaged area, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan joined Musharraf in drawing the world’s attention to the plight of the earthquake victims. While donor fatigue is cited as a reason behind the inadequate international response, others offer a different explanation for such increased suffering in a Third World country. Addressing a Nov. 29 meeting of the Asia Society, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) expressed concern that, while earthquake victims are not receiving sufficient attention, tsunami relief funds lie unused.

Earthquake relief assistance is further mired in regional conflicts, as well as by Pakistan’s internal politics. India dragged its feet for more than three weeks before agreeing to open up the five entry points on the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Indian-held from Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. These crossing points are even more significant politically than they are as gateways through which supplies and relief workers can reach the affected areas.

To oversee relief efforts, Musharraf appointed a committee headed by an army major general. As a result, opposition parties boycotted the international conference and are refusing to cooperate with the official relief committee, trying instead to provide relief to the quake victims on their own. This split has created sad barriers to joint relief efforts.

In the midst of all this, Musharraf asked Washington to hold back on the delivery of the F-16 aircraft which Pakistan had ordered so that the money could be channeled toward earthquake relief. Pakistan’s opposition parties were unwilling to buy this rationale, however, and were quick to point out that Musharraf‘s stance on the F-16s flies in the face of his reported decision to spend over $2 billion on the construction in Islamabad of a Joint Military Command headquarters (along the lines of the Pentagon).

Using whatever authority he has, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz urged opposition leaders to join the ruling Muslim League party in working out a united action plan in response to the earthquake emergency. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s diplomatic missions are busy organizing fund-raising meetings with Pakistanis living overseas. Ambassador to the U.S. Gen. (rtd) Jehangir Karamat visited a local Muslim community center in Virginia to raise funds for the earthquake victims.

The Kashmir Dispute

Unfortunately, the so-called Confidence Building Measures (CBM) between India and Pakistan have not enabled the two neighbors to tackle such serious concerns as the Kashmir question or the dispute over water. New Delhi’s only concession to date was the result of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s meeting with the moderate Kashmiri group led by Omar Farooq, after which India agreed to open the LoC entry points to help earthquake victims.

Without spelling out the details—or even the outline—Farooq has been floating the idea of establishing a “United States of Kashmir.” While neither Delhi nor Islamabad has responded publicly to his proposal, it has been endorsed by senior Azad Kashmir leader Sardar Qayyum Khan. Obviously, much depends on the specific components of such a formula. Unless those are made known, the idea may die before there is a chance to act on it. Similarly, President Musharraf’s proposal to demilitarize the entire Kashmir area has as yet drawn no response from Delhi.

Given this climate, it is interesting that U.S. Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN), who is known to favor a settlement of the Kashmir dispute, is leading a 15-member delegation to the subcontinent, where he is expected to meet with Prime Minister Singh and President Musharraf. Describing Burton as an “India baiter,” the Deccan Chronicle of Nov. 27 recalled the congressman’s statement last year, when he referred to the situation in Kashmir as “A relentless deadly struggle…going on half a world away.” Continued Burton, “If the United States is serious about building good relations with India…and protecting its own reputation as a champion of human rights…we should not stand by in silence while India perpetrates atrocities against the Muslims, Sikhs and Christians…in the disputed territory.”

The military and economic collaboration between Washington and Delhi is solidifying each day, and the stakes for both sides are increasing. Under the circumstances, Washington can ill afford to press Delhi to resolve long-standing disputes with Pakistan. Thus the CBMs serve primarily to keep the two nuclear rivals from starting a shooting war neither is eager to fight.

Inside India

Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s 15-year political hold on the state of Bihar has ended with the electoral defeat of his Rashtriya Janata Dal party. Voting the regional powerbroker and his corrupt state government out of office was an alliance of the state’s lowest caste of Hindus and many of Bihar’s Muslims. A major development in Indian state politics, Yadav’s defeat represents not only a local victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which participated in the victorious coalition, but a headache for the ruling Congress party. Its reverberations may have an impact on upcoming 2006 regional elections as well. Whether Congress party president Sonia Gandhi can develop adequate strategies to meet the challenge posed by the defeat of Yadav—who, despite having lost his local power base, continues to hold his seat in parliament—will depend on who is willing to stand by her in future electoral contests.

Another irritant to the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is the loss of his foreign minister, Natwar Singh, who was thrown out of the Congress party and had to resign from office after reportedly being implicated in the U.N.’s oil-for-food program bribery scandal. As a result, the Indian prime minister currently is also holding the foreign ministry portfolio. It is not anticipated at the moment that he will have to add the railways ministry to his duties as well. But for the first time in many years, the possibility exists that Biharis won’t have Lalu Prasad Yadav to kick around anymore.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.