Egyptian Officials, Farmers Debate Effect Of Climate Change on Fertile Nile Delta

By Joseph Mayton


	This NASA satellite image shows the Nile River during its peak summer green in mid-July 2004. Where the river flows into the Mediterranean Sea (top) sits the Nile River Delta, shaped like a lotus flower, Egypt’s national symbol (AFP Photo/NASA).

ALONG THE Nile Delta’s many tributaries, life is good for Makram, a young farmer who is working the land that has been in his family for generations. But this could all change for him and the thousands of farmers who call Egypt’s fertile Delta home.

Climate change could irreversibly affect the northern Delta region, Environment Minister George Maged said told a parliamentary committee earlier this year. Government and independent analysts alike are warning that if action is not taken to curtail global warming and climate change, Egypt will be facing a disaster on unprecedented levels—one that could force people like Makram to relocate.

“I haven’t heard much about these issues,” Makram admitted, “but I believe that whatever happens, we will be okay because this is an important part of the country’s food sources.”

He pointed to the vast farmland that extends for miles. It is an impressive—and rare—expanse of green in Egypt, a land dominated by desert. But here in the Delta region, farming these lands has become more than a way of life.

“This is what we do and have been doing it for generations, maybe since the time of the Pharaohs,” Makram explained. Told of Environment Minister Maged’s stark prediction that this region could be submerged within half a century, the farmer was skeptical, saying, “I don’t think it will change no matter what people say about it.”

Government and independent analysts do disagree on how long it will take for the effects of global warming and climate change to hit the north of Egypt.

According to Maged, “Many of the towns and urban areas in the north of the Delta will suffer from the rise in the level of the Mediterranean from 2020, and about 15 percent of Delta land is under threat from the rising sea level and the seepage into the ground water.”

Joint studies by his ministry and the United Nations have assessed the situation as urgent, Maged said, adding that Egypt is planning to launch an international campaign looking for solutions and assistance from abroad. However, the minister appears to be alone in his assertions that disaster is imminent.

Water analysts argue that more in-depth research is needed before claims of impending doom can be made.

“There is no tangible evidence that the Delta will be flooded,” argued Hammou Laamrani, project coordinator of the International Development Research Center’s regional water demand initiative in Cairo. “What can be anticipated with the sea-level rise is that the coastal line in Egypt will be submerged.”

In Laamrani’s opinion, the worst-case scenario of the submersion of much the Nile Delta region probably will take a much longer period of time.

Mostapha Saleh, head of Environment Quality International in Egypt, described Environment Minister Maged’s warnings as “exaggerated. I think it’s a gross misunderstanding,” he added. Saleh speculated that the minister was overstating the danger in order to raise international awareness of the situation confronting Egypt, which Saleh admitted could eventually become “critical.”

While the environmental danger warrants attention, Salah said that, according to the data he has seen, “if sea levels rise by one meter, that would bring water inland 60 to 70 kilometers [35 miles], so it is not necessarily a large portion of the Delta.”

The Nile Delta region is home to approximately half of Egypt’s population of 80 million people. According to the U.N.’s Environment Program, a rise in only 0.5 meters (20 inches) would displace at least four million people and damage 1,800 square kilometers (700 square miles).

A one-meter rise (39 inches) would displace at least six million Egyptians and damage more than double the farmland.

Hussein Al Atfy, deputy director to Minister Maged, says Egypt is attempting to protect its shoreline as a first barrier. But that won’t be enough.

“We are currently doing this on the beaches in the north,” he noted, “but after this the government will need to ask the world for help. It costs too much for Egypt to take on all this on our own, so the international community needs to assist us.”

Will other nations respond to Egypt’s plight? Al Atfy believes that once the situation is understood and the need becomes apparent, the world will recognize that its assistance is vital to maintaining the country’s ancient past—especially Alexandria, the legendary city of Alexander the Great.

“When they see what the situation is, I know they will help us,” he maintained. “It’s just a matter of time.”

The Alexandria municipal government is spending approximately $300 million constructing concrete walls to protect the city’s beaches, and dumping sand in some areas sand in an effort to counter erosion.

Khaled AbuZeid, regional water resources program manager at the Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE), insisted that, while doomsayers can attempt to elicit a response from the global community, “There still is not a lot of information available for us to make concrete decisions. I think this still needs more research and more studies to accurately assess the potential impacts.”

Nevertheless, AbuZeid acknowledged, “We should not ignore the possible impacts.”

“There will definitely be dramatic consequences of people’s lives and ecosystems in the Delta for sure,” predicted Laamrani. He, too, cautioned, however, that “the extent is not known and nobody can predict precisely how severe the phenomenon will be.”

Laamrani was optimistic that, even given the worst-case scenario, Egyptians will rise to the challenges confronting them. When faced with adversity, he explained, “Humanity has always developed responsive strategies, and I believe Egypt will do so.”

Like the entire Middle East region, said Munqeth Mehyar, director of Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME), Egypt must be prepared for what is to come. He spoke prior to the U.N.’s annual conference on climate change, held this year in Bali, Indonesia, at which FoEME gave a security risk assessment of climate change in the Middle East.

“Being left unprepared will affect not only economic, physical and environmental security,” Mehyar warned, “but national, regional and global security, if actions are not taken now to mitigate and adapt to the projected impacts of climate change.”

While it may be too early to predict the extent of climate change in Egypt, the facts on the ground appear to hint toward a calamitous situation that could see much of the northern part of the country awash with water. The question appears to be not if Egypt will face devastation, but when.

Back in the Delta, Makram gazes out at his land, which he tends on a daily basis, braving the extreme summer heats that often rise well above 100 degrees. Along with his family and friends, “I don’t think the government would allow such catastrophes to happen,” Makram explained. “There are ways that they can help protect us from disasters that may or may not arrive.”

Turning, he looked confident.

“You know, I am an educated person,” he said, “and I understand that sometimes things happen that are out of our control, but maybe we can make it work. I mean, other countries have done so,” he added, noting that the Netherlands system for dealing with rising sea waters could be used as a model for Egypt’s north.

Only time will reveal who is right—the pundits or the farmers.

Joseph Mayton is a free-lance journalist based in Cairo.