Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, January/February 2003, pages 68-70

Arab-American Activism

Israeli Elections and Palestinian Prospects

Basel Ghattas, general director of the Galilee Society, the largest non-governmental organization in Israel, and a Public Policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, discussed Israeli elections at the Center for Policy Analysis on Palestine on Nov. 21, 2002. The Jan. 28, 2003 elections are expected to set the course for Israel and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

With more than two years of unrest and political and economic instability, the Israeli public has shifted to the right. Polls show that the hawkish Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Likud Party will gain seats in the Israeli Knesset and will become the largest party in the parliament; as a result, Ghattas said, Sharon will have a lot of maneuvering power for coalition building.

While many in Israel and abroad see a ray of hope for possible change in Israeli politics in the Labor Party’s election of Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna, an ex-general and a newcomer to Israeli national politics, as its new leader, Ghattas warned that Mitzna and his Labor Party will be underdogs in the upcoming general elections.

Despite the failure of Sharon’s government to fulfill its election promises of security, economic prosperity, and peace, the Israeli public “loves Sharon,” Ghattas told his audience. In his opinion, Sharon’s biggest achievement was in managing to distance himself from his government’s failures, primarily due to his alliance with the Labor Party. Sharon’s “dirty work”—the reoccupation of the Palestinian territories and the various breaches of international and humanitarian laws—were carried out by Israeli Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who until October, was head of the Labor Party. Shimon Peres, the most prominent Labor Party personage in Sharon’s government, served as Sharon’s foreign minister diligently polishing Sharon’s image abroad and defending his government’s actions.

It would be in Labor’s best interest, Ghattas argued, to launch a public debate on the “root causes” of the problems—the occupation and settlements. Although Mitzna has said he would withdraw Jewish settlers and Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and start negotiations with the Palestinians, Sharon holds the opposite position. Israelis view Sharon as the cool-minded, grandfather figure, and seem to blame their woes on everyone but him. Despite the fact that Israel is in its third year of negative economic growth, that over 600 Israelis have been killed, and that peace is a distant prospect, Ghattas said, Sharon’s popularity is very high. “In any other country, such leadership with all its failures would never be re-elected,” he observed. “However, that will not be the case in Israel.”

A Sharon victory in the upcoming elections should not come as a surprise to anyone, Ghattas maintained. Sharon’s power, he explained, lies in the fact that he has made the biggest comeback in Israel’s political history. Having been expelled from his post as Israel’s defense minister following his 1982 invasion of Lebanon and barred by an official Israeli investigation committee from ever again serving as defense minister, he managed to fulfill a life-long dream of becoming Israel’s prime minister.

Ghattas contended that Sharon established his government on two main foundations: to pursue and maintain a unity government, and to build and develop a unique and sustainable relationship with the U.S. administration. For 21 months, the Israeli prime minister succeeded in preserving both foundations. His government collapsed only when Labor pulled out over the allocation of government funds to settlements. However, Sharon continues to enjoy success in his relationship with the Bush administration and is selling this to the Israeli public. This success, moveover, is something against which newcomer Mitzna cannot compete.

Mitzna’s true test, argued Ghattas, will come after the elections. Will he hold to his pledge not to join a Likud-led government? If he does, Sharon will be forced to build a narrow, right-wing majority government —which Israeli political history has proven is doomed to fail.

—Courtesy CPAP “For the Record” report

Zunes Describes Policy Shift to Right

At Washington, DC’s Center for Policy Analysis on Palestine Oct. 4, Stephen Zunes, professor of politics at the University of San Francisco, discussed new policies adopted by nations waging the war on “terror.” Following the Sept. 11 attacks, he said, the United States has lined up to support Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his rightist Likud government, turning its back on Washington’s traditional support of the more moderate, but still hawkish, center-left Labor Party.

Ignoring international law, U.N. Security Council resolutions and worldwide public opinion that Israel’s occupation is the central problem, Zunes said, the Bush administration and congressional leaders instead focused on Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat. Following Israel’s lead, the Bush administration accused Arafat, who is under Israeli siege in Ramallah, with his security services in tatters, of not doing enough to stop the violence. Senators have insisted Bush not restrain Sharon’s military assaults against Palestinians and continue to veto any U.N. criticism of Israel.

According to Zunes, the post-9/11 U.S. policy of treating those who harbor or have links to terrorists as terrorists themselves is excluding any possibility of negotiations. U.S. backing of Israeli military actions, shellings and assassinations have only motivated more suicide bombings against Israel, he said, and Sharon’s offensive has destroyed Palestinian political life and any power that Arafat may have had to curb violence.

While Bush and Congress blame Arafat exclusively for violence, Zunes noted, American public opinion polls conducted in May 2002 show that most Americans blame both sides for the continued violence. The majority of Americans condemn Sharon’s invasion of Palestinian territories and his rejection of Bush’s request to withdraw. A CNN/Time poll indicated that 60 percent of Americans think that some or all of U.S. aid to Israel should be suspended as a response to that invasion. Nonetheless, Congress passed a bill increasing military aid to Israel by $200 million, in addition to the more than $2 billion of military assistance already given this fiscal year.

Zunes said he finds it ironic that Bush is calling for a regime change for Palestinians instead of for Israelis, who have a leader who consistently ignores international law and U.N. resolutions.

—Courtesy CPAP

Groundbreaking Survey of U.S. Jews and Arabs

The Arab American Institute (AAI) and Americans for Peace Now (APN) released a heartening joint survey of Arab-American and Jewish-American attitudes toward U.S. Middle East policy and on relations between the two communities. The survey, conducted by Zogby International in late October 2002, was jointly commissioned by the two organizations, which announced the findings Nov. 21 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. Among the survey’s major findings:

•Both groups (45.4 of Jewish Americans and 65.8 of Arab Americans) believe the Bush administration should steer a middle course in its policy toward the peace process.

•Overwhelming majorities of Jewish and Arab Americans support a two-state solution. When Jewish Americans were asked if Palestinians had the right to live in a secure and independent state of their own, nearly 85.5 percent agreed. When asked if Israelis had that right, nearly 95.4 percent of Arab Americans agreed. When asked, this time in the same sentence, “Do you agree or disagree that Israelis and Palestinians each have the right to live in a secure and independent state of their own?” the figures rose for each: 86.9 percent Jewish Americans and 96.8 percent Arab Americans agreed.

•Both communities have misperceptions about the level of support that exists on the other side for secure, independent Palestinian and Israeli states. While 50.4 percent of Arab Americans agreed that a majority of Jewish Americans think Palestinians have a right to live in a secure and independent state of their own, the actual level of Jewish American support for this position is 85.5 percent. At the same time, only 33.8 percent of Jewish Americans agree and 40.7 disagree that a majority of Arab Americans think that Israelis have a right to live in a secure and independent state of their own, even though 95.4 percent of Arab Americans hold this view.

•Nearly 94 percent of Arab Americans and 86.6 percent of Jewish Americans think it is very or somewhat important for the two communities to work together to achieve peace in the Middle East.

•Both communities support a peace proposal based on the Taba framework. When asked, “Would you support or not support a peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians that included the establishment of an independent, secure Palestinian state alongside an independent, secure Israeli state, the evacuation of most settlements from the West Bank and Gaza, the establishment of a border roughly along the June 4, 1967 border, a Palestinian right of return only to a new Palestinian state, and establishing Jerusalem as the shared capital of both countries?” 51.7 Jewish Americans and 78.9 Arab Americans supported it.

•Both sides follow the situation in the Middle East closely, and 74 percent of Jewish Americans and 59 percent of Arab Americans are pessimistic about Middle East peace.

•Jewish and Arab Americans blame both sides for the breakdown in the Middle East peace process, although a large segment of each community also blamed the other side.

“The AAI/APN joint survey reveals that our communities are much more moderate on Middle East-related issues than people are often led to believe,” said Debra DeLee, president and CEO of Americans for Peace Now. “In fact, this study provides encouraging information about the potential for both communities to work together in pursuit of common interests in the region. Our poll also sends a message to decision makers in Washington that Arab Americans and Jewish Americans at large want to see the U.S. follow policies that will encourage the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, rather than detract from it.”

The results are significant, AAI president James Zogby told reporters. “Despite heightened tensions and the terrible toll of the continuing conflict,” he said, “solid majorities of Arab Americans and American Jews remain committedto a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians. Both communities are troubled by current U.S. policy and want to see a more aggressive and balanced push for peace.”

—Delinda C. Hanley