New Beginnings in South Asia

By M.M. Ali

President George W. Bush appears to have picked up where his father had left off some eight years ago in establishing a New World Order. A policy to contain China seems to be high on the U.S. administration’s priority list. The recent spy plane incident near China’s borders apparently has prompted the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon to develop a China policy, and quickly. As a result, U.S. policy toward South Asia, which had been rather sedate during the Clinton administration, has taken on a new vigor.

Abandoning diplomatic discretions and nuances, President Bush has made open moves to befriend India, to the annoyance of Pakistan and others in the region. In turn, New Delhi has jumped to endorse Washington’s still-unchartered Nuclear Missile Defense program, surprising even still-undecided European allies. The least India can receive in return is withdrawal of the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. following India’s May 1998 nuclear tests. What is the most it can expect from America is a matter of speculation at this time.

The decision to dispatch Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to Delhi was further indication of Washington’s desire to reassure India about its desire to forget the past and build new bridges between the two countries, whose relations were strained throughout the Cold War. Armitage’s statement that the U.S. is concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear capability (without mentioning India’s), sent chills down the spine in Pakistan, America’s traditional ally.

Armitage’s remark was followed by an announcement that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Harry H. Shelton would be visiting India by the end of May. It was also officially reported that President Bush had accepted Prime Minister Attal Behari Vajpayee’s invitation to visit India, although no dates for the visit were disclosed. And a joint Republican-Democrat Congressional delegation was said to be likely to visit India, and meet Kashmiri leaders as well, in a month’s time.

India also took time to engage in a major military exercise on the borders of Pakistan called “Total Victory.” The Indian Defense Ministry made a point of announcing that the exercises were to test their nuclear defense capability and also to work on joint army-air force coordination in times of war. Coincidentally, the exercise took place when Indian Navy Chief Admiral Kumar was visiting Israel, where he reportedly met with the military brass and even Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Interestingly, on an official visit to Pakistan at the same time (May 10 to 13) was Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji. Zhu and Pakistan’s military ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, signed six economic cooperation agreements, with China promising to provide assistance to the tune of $600 million. Special mention was made of Chinese help in building up the Gawadar port and a coastline highway along the Indian Ocean region closer to the Persian Gulf.

While China’s desire to further cement its ties with Pakistan is understandable, the timing of the visit and the deals struck between the two countries were received in Pakistan with a degree of nervousness, although that was not too visible during the exuberance of the high-profile visit. The Chinese visit came in the midst of crucial negotiations Islamabad was conducting with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, to have its assistance released in response to Pakistan’s current economic crises. Despite an April meeting between Pakistan’s finance minister and the U.S. treasury secretary, which indicated a softening of Washington’s stance toward Pakistan, Zhu’s visit sent mixed signals inside knowledgeable Pakistani circles. With the U.S. boosting its relations with India, Pakistan and China have never needed each other more.

Inside India

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition government of Attal Behari Vajpayee was experiencing smooth sailing, especially on the external front, until elections in five states were won by opposition parties. The BJP defeat in West Bengal was predictable, given the Communist Party’s stronghold there. But its ouster in Assam and Tamil Nadu came as a shock. In particular, the success in Tamil Nadu of Jayalalita’s AIDMK party once again shook up the ruling groups and, in the course of time, may even threaten the stability of the BJP government in Delhi.

Similarly, the success of the Congress party in Kerala and Pondicherry meant that BJP had absolutely no meaningful support in the southern states. Political pundits are now speculating that the election scheduled for February in Uttar Pradesh in the north may also go against the BJP. Should that come to pass, the BJP may lose its majority in the Lokh Sabha and be forced to call for fresh elections.

Vajpayee will have to come up with new tricks to stay in power this time. A sudden infusion of U.S. investments into the country, which is likely to happen once the sanctions are dropped, could come as manna from heaven and stave off the crises for BJP. The U.S. government, however, would prefer to play ball with Congress’ Sonia Gandhi rather than with Behari Vajpayee of BJP.

Inside Pakistan

No fewer than two dozen high-powered committees and commissions appointed by General Musharraf are busy churning out reports on vital issues for Pakistan. A report on the “right-sizing” (a euphemism for downsizing) of the bureacracy has recommended cutting the fat from the administration and streamlining top-level officialdom. More details of the Devolution Plan are trickling out, causing concern in civil service cadres. What is being described as the “legacy of the imperial colonial period’ is being restructured drastically, especially at the district level. The National Bureau for Reconstruction, headed by Lt. Gen. Tanvir Naqvi, is holding meetings with former politicians and public figures to assess the thinking of the leaders on the question of amending the 1973 constitution—an undertaking which the military government has granted the Supreme Court.

This is perhaps the most significant exercise underway in the country at this time. It appears that the powers of the provinces (states) are to be further curtailed and, in all likelihood, a presidential form of government re-established as it existed during the time of the late Gen. Zia ul-Haq. A proposal to have a National Security Council consisting of civilians and military leaders, on the pattern of Turkey, also is being seriously considered.

Yet another commission, on debt burden reduction measures, has released its report, which is being discussed in seminars around the country. The thrust of the report is the seeking of a moratorium from international lender institutions for a period of three to four years so that the country’s financial house can be put in order. While the report rules out the option of default on loan payments, voices both inside and outside the government are asking for a writeoff of Pakistan’s external debt burden. The possibility of that happening is bleak, but it nevertheless indicates the extent of Pakistan’s dire financial situation.

On the political front, General Musharraf has said that he does not see the army continuing in its present role for too long. Interestingly, he has appointed Lt. Gen. Usmani as the deputy chief of the army staff (DCOAS), a post that had remained unoccupied and dormant since Zia ul-Haq’s regime. Speculation is that this is a precursor to Musharraf’s moving into the president’s office, placing a trusted man in charge of the military, as Zia did during his time. Of course, the army can return to the barracks, leaving behind a few generals to head various civilian offices. In spite of opposition from old political cronies, and some disaffection muttered by bureaucrats, Musharraf’s government has made a small dent in the running of government and improved the credibility of the administration, particularly at the higher levels. One no longer hears of graft.

The country’s malaise is too deep, however, and it will require a sustained effort to pull the country out of the ditch it had dug for itself in the last few years. Musharraf is apparently content to move incrementally on each score, and has yet to make major news. It seems that the prospects of high drama taking place are not too bright.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a consultant and a specialist on South Asia. Based in the Washington, DC area, he recently visted the subcontinent.