U.S. Signals Strengthened Ties With India, as Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan Struggle for Normalcy

By M.M. Ali

Cross the Mediterranean from Europe and you have countries that still are striving to stave off the yoke of colonialism and seeking to exploit their natural resources for their own good, without external help or intervention. Sadly—as a result of the post World War I machinations of Western powers, particularly imperial Britain—their economies and their politics today are caught in a no-win situation. For the developing world, the post-World War II changes in the international balance of power have only made matters worse.

The collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s has posed new challenges for countries in the neighborhood of China and the newly independent Central Asian republics. For understandable reasons, the subcontinent of India and Pakistan (including Afghanistan) that falls in this general region has received special attention from the United States, the lone remaining superpower. This geo-political environment offers certain natural advantages to larger India and poses difficulties for smaller Pakistan. The nuclear capability of these two developing countries lends an added dimension and significance to the region.

It is interesting that President George W. Bush, bypassing the nuances of protocol, received visiting Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh in the White House on April 5, sending a clear message that the new Republican administration wishes to maintain closer ties with New Delhi. The visit was preceded by a joint Republican-Democratic congressional memorandum to the White House urging the removal of all legal impediments in U.S.-Indian relations. Pakistan was included only incidentally in the memorandum.

The memorandum also coincided with former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s visit to India to raise funds for the victims of the Gujarat earthquake. It has been known for some time that Washington is under pressure from powerful corporate America to facilitate investment opportunities in the vast Indian economy. Therefore, unless New Delhi fouls things up, U.S.-Indian ties are likely to get stronger in the coming four years of the Republican administration.

For its part, Pakistan must develop strategies to work around this growing American-Indian alliance, try to extricate itself from its economic morass, while meeting the demand of donor countries and international financial institutions for the restoration of democracy. A tall order—but, with grit and statecraft, manageable. The coming months will be interesting to watch.

It suits India to keep Americans off its back and vast areas of Kashmir under its control.

The hopes raised for a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir dispute by India’s cease-fire announcement last November, and its subsequent extension until the end of May, have now melted. It is now clearer than ever that New Delhi is using the cease-fire announcement as a way to appease American pressure to settle the issue and also to keep the Kashmiris in good humor and Pakistan at bay. Its policy vis-à-vis Kashmir has not in fact changed. Indian military forces have continued to maintain their stranglehold on Kashmir. However, Delhi allows elements inside and outside the occupied state to flirt with different theories and options for the resolution of the dispute which has caused two wars to be fought between India and Pakistan during the last 54 years.

An old idea again afloat calls for Azad Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan to remain under Pakistani control (as they are now) for the next 10 years, and Jammu and Ladakh to remain with India (as they are now) for the next 10 years, with the Valley to be under a U.N. trusteeship—again, for 10 years. The future of the entire State of Jammu and Kashmir, according to this plan, would be decided after the intervening decade.

This formula reportedly has the approval of Washington and is being floated through non-official Kashmiri sources. It is evident that it will not make any headway with Kashmiris or with Pakistan. Nonetheless, it suits India to keep Americans off its back and vast areas of Kashmir under its control. As a demonstration of its goodwill and good faith, Pakistan has continued to seek direct talks with India on the subject. New Delhi has yet to respond.

Inside Pakistan

Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s administration is busy taking remedial steps to clean up and streamline the Pakistan government. Almost daily, a commission or a team appointed by him has been submitting its findings and recommendations. As part of his Devolution Plan, elections at the local municipal level continue.

Elements within the administration and in the political arena, however, are skeptical that the functioning of the Plan can be used to measure progress toward democratization. Washington and the European Community do not miss an opportunity to tell Musharraf that they are watching developments inside Pakistan like hawks.

The country’s major problem continues to be economic rather than political, however. Islamabad plays along with the conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in order to remain afloat One of Pakistan’s most pressing problems is a severe water shortage, and it is approaching its Middle East and Gulf friends for financial assistance to build water reservoirs.

The April 6 decision of Pakistan’s Supreme Court, setting aside the convictions of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari and calling upon “a competent court” for their retrial, has introduced added confusion to an already murky political environment.

While Bhutto supporters are euphoric about the decision, others have interpreted it not as an acquittal of the Bhuttos but instead a serious judicial questioning of the special court that had convicted them in the first place. This has possible implications for the authority of recently promulgated laws. Serious minds are giving a second look to the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and other judicial bodies appointed by ordinance. Further legal challenges are expected to emerge from other corners in the coming weeks and months. Benazir Bhutto would be ill-advised to attempt to return home from her self-imposed exile abroad, however—unless she wants to confront Musharraf. She has been reminded that there are close to nine other cases pending against her and her husband in the Pakistani courts. Nevertheless, the Supreme Court decision has provided a field day for journalists and loud thinkers and caused considerable discomfort to state prosecutors.

Problems for Vajpayee

Two young Indian journalists have exposed the corruption that has seeped into the political and civil administration of Prime Minister Attal Behari Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party. The two devised a trap called “Tehleka” (engineered turmoil) to catch the culprits. Documentary and physical evidence was collected against several top leaders and administrators, particularly those of the Defense Ministry. Indian Defense Minister George Fernandez had to quit his office, and BJP President Bangrappa has had to resign, The prime minister had to make immediate changes in certain officials who worked closely with him. The Indian parliament was disrupted for days when the opposition Congress party, led by Sonia Gandhi, demanded the government’s resignation. Nor is the matter over yet. The prime minister has promised a “thorough investigation of everyone charged, including those in the opposition.” To the chagrin of Vajpayee and his coalition government, Tehleka is likely to cause more heads to roll.

Afghanistan

There are ominous developments in and around Afghanistan. The Taliban’s destruction of the statues of Buddha appeared to be a cry for recognition more than the fulfillment of a religious requirement. However, nations that acquiesced in the mass killings in Israel, Bosnia, Kosovo and Chechnya have expressed unforgiving anger at the Taliban action. In spite of the almost total control the Taliban have over Afghanistan, no nations except Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have recognized the Afghan regime.

With America cooling down on the Osama bin Laden case—at least for the time being—the European Community seems to have decided to heat up the Afghan war. The EU parliamentary leadership invited opposition militia leader and former Defense Minsiter Ahmed Shah Masoud—who was driven out north beyond Mazar-e-Sharif by the advancing Taliban—to meet with them after Masoud asked EU countries to provide him with arms to fight the Taliban. According to Reuters on April 8, there are reports of arms and heavy ammunition coming into northern Afghanistan from Russia and Iran to assist anti-Taliban forces. Suddenly, Afghan Gen. Abdul Rasheed Dostum, who was in exile in Iran, Turkey and Turkemenistan, has reappeared and vowed once again to oust the Taliban. The stage is being set for the revival of major hostilities in Afghanistan—this time with the open involvement of Russia and the European powers.

The new exercise is being described as an effort to achieve a broad-based peace agreement to bring “normalcy back to Afghanistan.” Whether this will be accomplished without further bloodshed in Afghanistan is doubtful. In any case, should war break out again, as is most likely to happen, it will have a direct bearing on Pakistan and will have a severe impact on the entire region. The European Union most likely is conducting a proxy policy in the area on behalf of the U.S. Unfortunately, there appears to be little regard for human life and Afghan suffering.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a consultant and specialist on South Asia based in the Washington DC area. He is currently visiting the subcontinent.