Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, January/February 2000, pages 25, 26

The Subcontinent

Remedial Actions in Pakistan and Post-Election Operations in India

By M.M. Ali

Gen. Parvez Musharraf may be finding that it's easier to take over the government of Pakistan than to run it. From the time in 1998 when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif dismissed Commander-in-Chief Jehangir Karamat, the civil and military authorities had eyed each other suspiciously.

Sharif was looking for an opportunity to make another change in the military leadership, and the military had prepared a contingency plan to deal with such an eventuality. But the army had not thought through the course of action to follow after a takeover.

Nevertheless, for the fourth time the Pakistan army has begun to cleanse the debris of corruption, ineptitude and callousness left behind by elected politicians.

Western idealism notwithstanding, the turn of events in Pakistan may not have been merely the best option. It seemed to be the only option.

Sometimes ground realities do not match aerial assessments. Pakistan is a case in point. It is wiser to risk an uncomfortable corrective phase than to push the system to the brink of total chaos and open up the possibility of an uncontrollable revolutionary wave. Pakistan is still pregnant with such stark possibilities.

General Musharraf's Task

General Musharraf had no more than a bunch of senior army officers with him after the takeover on Oct. 12, 1999. He had to go find men and women not tainted by previous corrupt regimes to help him cleanse the system and seek to put the country back on an even keel. He set up a National Security Council consisting of civilians and military officers, with himself as the chief executive to formulate policy and run the administration. Ironically, it was such a council that Commander-in-Chief Jehangir Karamat had proposed and for which he was dismissed by former Prime Minister Sharif.

Musharraf has also created a number of sub-councils to take care of various areas of the government. All members serve at the pleasure of the chief executive. The arrangements obviously are tentative, and can change in coming weeks and months. The judiciary, however, has been left undisturbed.

Prioritization

Judging by his first actions, General Musharraf is responding to a public clamor for accountability and his own desire to subject Nawaz Sharif to a quick judicial trial. He has delegated to the teams he has assembled in Islamabad the tasks of finding immediate and lasting solutions to financial and economic ills.

The criminal charges against Nawaz Sharif are "hijacking Pakistan International Airways Flight 805" and "endangering the lives of over 200 passengers including General Musharraf, who was on the aircraft on Oct 12, 1999." The former prime minister is being tried under a revised anti-terrorist act which carries the death penalty for those found guilty.

Because Sharif and his family also are charged separately for defaulting on bank loans, their property has been frozen for the time being. With memories of the hanging of deposed Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the late 1970s by Gen. Zia ul-Haq, who also took power in a military coup, Sharif's criminal trial has drawn considerable internal and external interest.

Both the United States and the United Kingdom have asked for a "fair trial" and advised against capital punishment. Since Musharraf has not disrupted the old judiciary, even a quick trial at a lower level may lead to appeals to higher courts and drag on for a long period unless, of course, rules of the game are changed mid-way.

Legal experts think that the hijacking charge may not hold. But, similarly, the case against the late Prime Minister Bhutto (father of deposed Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto) was described as "weak and full of holes." Interestingly, Musharraf has granted amnesty to military officers who sided with Sharif in the early hours of Oct. 12 when the situation was unclear.

On the economic recovery front, Musharraf's military regime issued orders to all defaulters to return bank loans or make suitable arrangements with the banks by Nov. 15. On Nov 16 it arrested 30 big fish for non-compliance and their assets were frozen. Many of them were prohibited from leaving the country, and police were ordered to raid designated homes and offices to recover defaulted loans. Of the approximately four billion rupees owed to the banks, only 10 to 12 percent were returned or were covered by repayment plans during the first month after the ultimatum. So far, the government has not approached the foreign bank accounts of defaulting individuals or groups. Again, recovery of bank loans is a stupendous task because of the size of the loans and the difficulty of tracing what happened to the funds.

On the positive side, several task forces and committees under the leadership of Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz, now on leave from his position as a senior vice president of the New York City Bank, are working on "home grown" plans to pull the country out of its economic crisis. New terms also are being negotiated with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for resumption of assistance.

Additional steps are being taken to improve the tax collection process. The new regime also has proposed a much debated but always deferred agriculture tax. These all are overdue tasks that were ignored by elected governments. The entrenched and powerful landlords have always resisted any move to tax them.

How far Musharraf is going to push them remains to be seen. Perhaps this is the only chance to resolve this vital area of revenue collection for good.

Political heavyweights have been invited to join a large advisory committee to assist Foreign Minister Abdus Sattar on external affairs. It is not likely that there will be any major changes in the foreign policy of Pakistan, but there will be broader input on all foreign policy matters.

Many seasoned diplomats and experienced men and women who were marginalized in recent years have been invited to participate in the formulation and implementation of policy.

Similarly, committees have been formed to look into social and educational sectors of the country.

Long-Range Challenge

The tasks facing General Musharraf are extraordinary. It may take a few years for even strong-arm rule to set Pakistan's house in order. He is under external pressure to announce a schedule for the restoration of democracy. Internally, people are frustrated and more interested in quick results, at least on the accountability of past culprits.

Musharraf may not allow himself to be rushed to meet the unrealistic demands coming from abroad. However, he has to respond to the internal pressures. But even on this score it is doubtful that he can produce spectacular results immediately. Change will have to be incremental. Meanwhile, much will depend on how the criminal charges against Mian Nawaz Sharif are handled.

Post-Election India

Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is back in the saddle, buoyed by his victory in India's national elections which led to a new coalition government that appears more stable this time than the previous one. However, the National Democratic Alliance that was formed to contest the elections is a varied combination of opposing political parties.

A significant factor is the willingness of such groups to join hands with Vajpayee's Hindu-based Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), whose company was hardly sought after in previous years. Consequently, these smaller political parties have provided BJP a presence in areas where it had no existence before. Having learned his lesson with maverick regional politician Jayalalitha of the AIDMK administration—who withdrew her support from his previous coalition and caused his government to fall—this time Vajpayee appears to be building a more stable coalition.

He has given plums (ministerial positions) even to leaders of small groups who helped BJP win elections, thereby diminishing the power of other members of the Alliance. He has also used cabinet portfolios to influence, if not manage, regional politics as in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. He has assembled the largest executive body in the history of the country, with 73 members, 28 of whom enjoy cabinet rank.

Besides the non-BJP groups, he also has to deal with unruly right-wing extremists within his own BJP party. In spite of his dexterous management, the disparate elements that have formed the BJP coalition government will pose serious challenges to the prime minister as time passes and demands are made for rewards to their respective constituencies.

Vajpayee's BJP base is not as secure as its election victory indicates. External factors helped BJP this time. Dissension within the Congress party and the Italian heritage of its leader, Sonia Gandhi, enabled BJP and other parties opposing Congress to pick up many voters. But the appearance of Sonia and the late Rajiv Gandhi's daughter Priyanka and son Rahul in this year's campaign served notice that they will be a part of the future leadership of the Congress party. Indian voters have a special affection for the dynasty of Jawalharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister. The presence of his two great-grandchildren in the Congress leadership will continue to make a difference in national politics, unless some scandal or disaster destroys the family's image.

Any threat to Atal Bihari Vajpayee's coalition government can come only from the Congress party in the Lokh Sabha, the lower house of the parliament. In such a case, the mantle of prime ministership would fall on the now opposition leader, Sonia Gandhi. To forestall this, a bill has been introduced in the Lokh Sabha stipulating that the offices of prime minister, president and vice president are limited to persons who are Indian citizens by birth. Should the bill pass and the constitution be amended, it will end Sonia Gandhi's prospects of ever becoming India's prime minister. At present, there is no agreement in opposition ranks about who would replace her.

A second, and equally significant, move has been to implicate assassinated Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in the Bofors scandal, involving major kickbacks paid to his administration in the late 1980s. In spite of the strong objections by the Congress party, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has listed Rajiv's name among the material witnesses in the case.

Vajpayee has prudently distanced himself from the CBI action, and the Rajiv Foundation has taken the matter to the courts, where it is awaiting decision. Any implication that Rajiv Gandhi was, in fact, involved in the scandal would taint the reputation of the Nehru dynasty and have far- reaching political consequences both for the family and for the Congress party.

Clinton's Subcontinent Visit

The military takeover in Pakistan has cast some shadows on the proposed visit to the subcontinent by President Bill Clinton next year, his last year in office. The Clinton administration has been planning to orchestrate this visit, and perhaps the signing of some agreement between India and Pakistan, as a major foreign policy accomplishment in an otherwise unspectacular record after eight years in office.

To bring about such an achievement, a visit to resurgent India but not to troubled Pakistan is unthinkable. Therefore, a face-saving way has to be found to visit both countries. This involves depicting the military coup as a matter of necessity for Pakistan, and extracting from General Musharraf a timetable for a return to democracy.

This was a central American consideration when the U.S. ambassador to India recently asked both India and Pakistan to "resume bilateral talks at the highest levels." Given Clinton's knack for presenting pomp and circumstances as progress, a visit to India and Pakistan in the year 2000 seems likely, despite the uncertainties in Islamabad, and the dangerously festering problem in disputed Kashmir.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a consultant and a senior fellow with the Center for Planning & Policy Studies in the Washington, DC area.