The Palestine Question in the New World Order

By Bishara A. Bahbah

Day in and day out, we are witnessing the unfolding of a new world order. Inescapably, the Question of Palestine, an issue of international concern for more than four decades, will be directly affected. At first glance, it would appear that the changes in the world order are to the Palestinians' detriment. In reality, however, the new world order could prove to be a godsend that will benefit the Palestinians in the long run.

End of the Cold War and the Demise of the Soviet Empire

With the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet empire, the world is no longer divided into East and West politico-military alliances. The new world order is a multi-polar system, with the United States as godfather.

Viewed in this new context, the Palestinians no longer benefit from automatic Soviet and East bloc political and material support. The Soviet economy is in shambles and the Soviet Union is no longer politically stable. East bloc countries are looking to the West for financial and technological assistance and are clearly unwilling to challenge the West for Palestine's sake.

The Palestinian cause is still just, but under the new world order Palestinians will nevertheless have to work harder to secure the votes of these countries at international forums. What Palestinians probably can no longer count on from these countries is support for controversial international resolutions against Israel. If, for example, the United Nations General Assembly were to vote today on the issue of equating Zionism with racism, it would be of little surprise if a majority of East bloc countries voted against the resolution for fear of offending their new Western partners.

Nor can Palestine rely any longer on East bloc countries as primary sources of military supplies and training. These are losses to be reckoned with, but they need not be devastating. Military supplies and training can also easily be secured from third parties.

The loss of the Soviet and East bloc's automatic support may, in fact, make the Palestinians more realistic about what is achievable under the present circumstances. Some would even argue that the Palestinians were aligned with the losing team from the beginning. The new world order could force the Palestinians to be more creative in pursuit of their goals.

The Emergence of the United States as the Only Superpower

The demise of the Soviet empire has ushered in the United States as the sole superpower in the new world order. Although the United States in general has acted as Israel's guardian and protector over the past few decades, US attitudes toward Israel, fortunately, are changing.

US attitudes toward Israel, fortunately, are changing.

First, the Bush administration is neither as ideologically nor emotionally attached to Israel as was the Reagan administration.

Second, US public opinion is much less sympathetic to Israel than it was a few years ago, even among American Jews. Israel has already lost its iron grip on the hearts and minds of the general American public. This will make any shift in official US policy much easier and less costly to the administration that dares to initiate it. It may even turn out to be a domestic political plus.

Third, Bush's approach to the new international order is based on close cooperation with the international community. His main objective is to maintain world order and stability under US tutelage. In this regard, Bush cannot get away with treating the world with one set of principles while using a different, more lenient, set of principles with Israel, if he expects to keep international respect and confidence.

Fourth, the Bush administration is preaching to the world the virtues of international law and principles. Eventually, these same principles would have to be applied to Israel's actions and behavior vis-a-vis the Palestinians. In October, the United States voted twice against Israel in the UN Security Council. Normally, the US would have vetoed Security Council resolutions critical of Israel, alleging, in most cases, that they were one-sided. On Oct. 12, however, the US voted for a Security Council resolution condemning Israel for the killing of Palestinians at the Haram Al-Sharif in Jerusalem, and authorizing the dispatching of a UN investigating team. Then, once again, on Oct.24, the United States joined in a unanimous Security Council resolution that "deplores the refusal of the Israeli government" to accept a UN mission investigating the Oct. 8 killing of Palestinians.

Fifth, the Bush administration, with serious prodding from its European allies, has indicated that, once the crisis in the Gulf is settled, it will direct its attention to solving the chronic Arab-Israeli dispute. There will be no escape for Israel but to face the prospect of relinquishing its control over the occupied Arab territories-Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese.

All these factors combined could conceivably be used by the Palestinians to their benefit, not so much to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States as to build US support for Palestinian self-determination including the right to establish a state of their own. Given Israel's dramatically increasing dependence on the US for political and material support, and given the new American approach to world politics, the United States could, at last, decide to exert its influence to achieve a decent settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The Arab World and Palestine

Iraq's Aug. 2 invasion of Kuwait and the PLO's perceived support of Iraq cost the Palestinians tremendously, both materially and politically. Recently, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat estimated the material losses to Palestinians since the beginning of the Gulf crisis to be around $10 billion. (See the writer's article in the December 1990 issue of The Washington Report for an itemized worldwide listing of Palestinian financial losses as a result of the Gulf crisis.)

Politically, Arab states of the Gulf and Egypt have been angered by the PLO's actions and statements. Notwithstanding, once a settlement is reached regarding Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, Arabs will once again rally around the Palestinian cause, because all acknowledge it is just, and because all know there will be no stability in the Middle East until the problem is solved.

To examine this issue from an unconventional perspective, maybe the Palestinians, including the PLO, were too comfortable with the large monetary infusions from Gulf countries. Maybe Palestinians in Kuwait and other Gulf countries were too cozy living in relative comfort and wealth in those countries. If anything, the current crisis in the Gulf should demonstrate to Palestinians the need to rely on their own resources and initiatives, and to recognize that their presence in those countries can never be permanent.

The most fundamental change in the nature of Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip occurred with the eruption on Dec. 8, 1987, of the Palestinian intifada. Because the leaders of this uprising emphasized nonviolent means for the struggle, the full impact of the uprising was not felt by most Israelis. A turning point occurred, however, on Oct. 8, when Israeli police massacred some 21 Palestinians in Jerusalem. Since that massacre, Israelis have been attacked almost daily, not with stones but rather with knives, and not only in the West Bank and Gaza but also in West Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

This wave of violence (and it is noteworthy that leaders of the intifada have enjoined their followers to limit themselves to knives and eschew the use of guns, even when Israelis use guns against them) should signal to the Israelis the need to rethink the strategy of holding the occupied territories indefinitely. Divided Israel will have to come to terms with itself, given the escalating cost of maintaining its occupation of these territories.

To further compound the situation, Israel recently has come under attack from individuals, and perhaps organizations, based in Jordan, Lebanon, and even Egypt—its only Arab peace partner. In the past two months alone, more Israelis were killed from cross border attacks than in the entire previous year. This should impel Israelis to rethink their entire relationship, now directed by political intransigents and Jewish religious extremists, with the Palestinians and their other Arab neighbors.

The new world order is still unfolding. It could hold many surprises—some pleasant and some distasteful—for Palestinians. However, a new international consensus is emerging to try and solve outstanding regional disputes worldwide. This means that within the foreseeable future the Question of Palestine has to be dealt with. This offers better grounds for hope than any development of the past 45 years.

Bishara A. Bahbah is adjunct professor of political science with Brigham Young University. He is a senior fellow at the Center for Policy Analysis on Palestine, based in Washington, DC