Ciller-Yilmaz Agreement Ends Five-Month Political Crisis

by James M. Dorsey

The long-awaited agreement between Turkey's two conservative parties to form a minority government has ended the country's five-month-old political crisis and raised hopes for a desperately needed economic reform program that will reduce both double-digit inflation and huge budget deficits.

Under the agreement, Motherland Party (ANAP) leader Mesut Yilmaz will serve as prime minister for the first year, caretaker Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, leader of the True Path Party (DYP), will take over for the next two years, and Mr. Yilmaz will again head the government in its fourth year. In its fifth and last year, the government would be headed by a member of Mrs. Ciller's DYP.

This complicated arrangement was seemingly the only way for the two party leaders, who share a pro-Western, free-market vision of predominantly Muslim Turkey, to set aside their deep-seated political differences that have virtually paralyzed the country for nearly half a year.

Portraying herself as the one to have "sacrificed" by dropping her initial demand that she be prime minister first in whatever government included the DYP, Mrs. Ciller said she had done so to keep the Islamist Refah (Welfare) Party from gaining power.

Refah emerged from last December's inconclusive general election as Turkey's largest political party, but its 158 deputies are a far cry from the 276-seat majority in the 550-member assembly needed to form a government.

Pressure from both Turkey's military and its business community persuaded Mr. Yilmaz to break off coalition talks with Refah and seek an alliance with his arch-rival, Mrs. Ciller.

"The Motherland Party was faced with intensive pressure from all quarters, led by the military, not to accept a deal with Refah," said Ilnur Cevik, editor-in-chief of the Turkish Daily News and a close associate of President Suleyman Demirel.

President Demirel invited Mr. Yilmaz in early February to form a government after both Refah leader Necmettin Erbakan and caretaker Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, leader of the center-right DYP, had each separately failed to form a coalition government.

The willingness of Mrs. Ciller and Mr. Yilmaz to compromise with each other followed a series of messages sent to them by the military, according to political analysts and prominent Turkish journalists.

Chief-of-staff Gen. Ismail Hakki Karabayi sent a newspaper article opposing Refah's participation in government to Parliament Speaker Mustafa Kalamli, a member of ANAP, with a note which read, according to Ertugul Ozkirk, editor-in-chief of the mass-circulation Hurriyet newspaper: "I would put my signature under this. Please read this article to Mesut Bey [Mr. Yilmaz]. Tell him I am of the same opinion."

Gen. Karabayi also conveyed this view to Mrs. Ciller during talks with the prime minister prior to the agreement to form a conservative coalition.

In a separate message to Mr. Yilmaz, military police commander Gen. Teoman Koman also stressed the military's rejection of Refah participation in government, Mr. Ozkirk said. Gen. Koman was head of Turkish intelligence during Mr. Yilmaz's short-lived government in 1991. In fact, the military had several times in recent months insisted on the inviolability of secularism in Turkey.

Some analysts warn, however, that preventing Refah from entering government and reports that the State Security Court is itching to prosecute Refah on charges of violating laws banning the mixing of religion and politics could backfire and provoke an even more serious crisis in Turkey.

"The prosecutor has sufficient evidence to prosecute Refah but it would be crazy to ban a party that represents 21 percent of the vote," said Sedat Ergin, Hurriyet's Ankara bureau chief.

No Other Alternative

Added Turkish Daily News editor Cevik: "All we will get out of this latest episode in which Refah has been declared 'taboo' is resentment and anger...We have to realize that we have no other alternative than to live with Refah...Those who oppose Refah at all costs do not seem to realize that they are doing a great harm to the future of this country."

And Refah is likely to benefit from being the country's main opposition party at a time when the conservatives are expected to implement a harsh economic austerity program. To do so, the conservatives DYP with its 135 seats and ANAP with its 126 will have to rely for a majority in parliament on support from two smaller left-wing parties. And that, together with fears that the animosities between Mr. Yilmaz and Mrs. Ciller could resurface at any time, may prove to be the new government's Achilles' heel.

A 1970s-style left-wing nationalist, Democratic Left Party leader Bulent Ecevit, has said that his 75 deputies would vote in favor of the new government. Yet he is likely to be uncomfortable with harsh austerity measures the government will have to take to reduce 80 percent year-on-year inflation, contain public deficits of about six percent of the gross national product, and narrow the trade gap, estimated at more than $12 billion in 1995.

In their party programs, both the DYP and ANAP call for swift privatization, restructuring of the loss-making pension system, and the closing of unproductive state enterprises. The new government also is expected to curb wage levels and let state firms increase their prices as part of an austerity plan.

In a taste of what might yet come, deputies of Mr. Ecevit's party recently successfully petitioned the constitutional court to strike down key elements of the country's telecommunications privatization law. As a result, any telecom deal will have to await the passing of new legislation by parliament and is believed to have been delayed by at least a year.

There is no love lost between Mrs. Ciller and Mr. Yilmaz. They are reported to have been involved in shouting matches in the back rooms of parliament and they went out of their way to insult each other during the recent election campaign.

Nevertheless, said political scientist Soli Ozel, "There is no way back from this arrangement. The question, however, is how long it will last."

At stake for the two politicians is who will control the country's center-right, given expectations that eventually their parties are likely to unite to form Turkey's single largest block, with approximately 40 percent of the vote.

Yet, some observers say that together they may be precisely the right mix to put Turkey back on its feet.

Said Hurriyet's Mr. Ergin: "Yilmaz has more of a bureaucrat mentality. He is calculating and thinks, not twice, but three or four times before making a move. Ciller is pragmatic. She's quick, has a lot of energy and loves taking risks even if it means making mistakes. It will be difficult for them to work together but they actually complement each other and a synthesis of the two is exactly the kind of leader Turkey needs."