Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, April 2002, pages 48-49

The Subcontinent

As Pakistan Continues to Put Its House in Order, Election Results Worry India’s BJP

By M.M. Ali

U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Wendy Chamberlain had predicted that President Pervez Musharraf’s mid-February visit to Washington would “change the fate of Pakistan.” To date, results of the visit include the Bush administration’s agreement, subject to congressional approval, to waive Pakistan’s $1.5 billion debt burden. Although several low-priority trade deals are in the works as well, however, Musharraf’s proposal that Washington raise import-export quotas on Pakistan’s textile industry was rebuffed—as was his request that the U.S. deliver 20 F-16s already paid for by Pakistan some time back.

His visit can be considered a personal success for Musharraf, however, who was described by President George W. Bush as “a courageous leader” and a “real statesman” with “foresight.” Billed as a “working visit,” his two-day stay in Washington included a luncheon in his honor hosted by President Bush, a joint press conference with the U.S. president, meetings with Defense Secretary Rumsfeld at the Pentagon and Secretary of State Colin Powell, an address at the Woodrow Wilson Center, and a press conference at the National Press Club. Musharraf also met with Pakistanis living in the U.S. at a large dinner hosted by Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Dr. Maleeha Lodhi.

During his visit Musharraf missed no opportunity to remind Americans that resolution of the Kashmir dispute is essential for normalization of India-Pakistan relations. Emphasizing that the U.S. could play a significant role in this regard, he once again extended his hand of friendship to India and urged Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to withdraw his troops from India’s border with Pakistan, terming the tactic “a dangerous game to play.” He also reminded his Washington hosts that Pakistan has been a steadfast friend of the United States for almost half a century.

On the home front, Musharraf described Pakistan as “a modern democratic and a moderate Islamic state.” Pointing at the damage done to his country by its previous administrations, he stated that his government was tackling huge economic, social and political issues. Musharraf expressed the hope that the U.S. would support and assist in his government’s efforts to improve the conditions of the Pakistani people.

Afghanistan Fallout

Despite Islamabad’s often pacifist and other times friendly approach taken toward Afghanistan, over the years it has received nothing but grief in return. During the regime of Zahir Shah, Kabul continually harped on the “Pakhtoonistan” question, claiming parts of Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) as part of Afghanistan. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan brought Washington into the picture, and Pakistan joined hands with the U.S. in throwing the Soviets out of Afghanistan—paying a heavy price in the process. Millions of Afghan refugees who crossed into Pakistan during the 1980s brought with them drugs and a Kalashnikov culture. The thousands of madrassas, or religious schools, set up inside Pakistan with U.S. assistance to train the mujahedeen (freedom fighters) to fight against the Soviets, spread their religious zealotry inside Pakistan as well. Its ruler at the time, Gen. Zia ul-Haq, encouraged the madrassas as part of his own religious agenda for the country.

The post-Soviet 1990s saw Afghanistan engulfed in a tribal civil war and witnessed the emergence of the Taliban, the product of the madrassas. Five years of Taliban rule pushed Afghanistan into extreme religious fanaticism, with religious extremism spreading into Pakistan as well. While Afghanistan has paid a very heavy price for the Taliban’s misdeeds, it is Pakistan that is confronted with the challenge of taming the religious fanatics. Thousands of madrassas, where young men are taught nothing but religion,exist in Pakistan. President Musharraf is taking steps to introduce subjects like mathematics, science, English, and the history of Pakistan into their curriculum. The U.S. has agreed to help implement his educational plan.

It is a truism that war distorts normal vision, as hatred replaces human relations and the innocent become helpless victims. Tragically, this kind of behavior seems to be prevalent among Pakistan’s religious right, and many Afghans who have sought refuge in Pakistan harbor grudges. However sad and condemnable is the murder of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, it must be understood in the present context. People affected by the Afghan war appear to be losing sight of sanity. Not only does Musharraf face the huge challenge of taming the monster of extremism in Pakistan, he must extricate his country from its economic doldrums, introduce social reform—and prepare for elections by next October.

Turn of Events in India

Ever since the decline of the National Congress as India’s premier political party, the country’s politics are determined in its various regions. No single party today can muster enough support to form a government on its own. The Congress, the Janata Dal and the BJP have had to resort to coalitions to form not only a central government but also, in recent years, state governments as well—many of which have been operating on very thin margins in their legislatures.

Uttar Pradesh (UP), the largest state in what is known as the Hindi belt, always has had a heavy bearing on the rest of the country. There was a lot at stake, therefore, for the BJP and opposition parties during UP’s February elections. Prime Minister Vajpayee even went so far as to amass troops along the Pakistan border in order to generate a national fervor and swing votes in UP and other states where elections were being held. Apparently, however, that was not enough to help the BJP.

In Punjab, Uttranachal Pradesh and Manipur, Congress defeated BJP-led governments, and BJP lost critical by-elections in Gujarat and Tamilnadu. Jaya Lalita of the AIDMK Party was victorious, and once again is chief minister in Tamilnadu.

The BJP’s most serious setback, however, took place in UP, where its coalition government was ousted. Unfortunately, no single political party in the 403-seat UP legislature won a clear majority to form a government. The socialist-leaning Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Mulayam Singh won 148 seats; the BJP 108 seats; the Bhojang Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati, which had joined hands with BJP in the last government, won 99 seats; Congress won 26 seats; and the rest went to independents.

Under the circumstances, the BSP appears to hold the key to the formation of UP’s next coalition government. Early indications are that the BJP may not be interested in forming a government. Mulayam Singh is making a strong bid, but his efforts depend on how much support he can get from the BSP’s Mayawati.

Masjid-Mandir Issue Refuses to Die

Ever since the BJP came to power in the 1990s the politics of religion has played a significant role in India. In UP it took on a significance of its own when right-wing Hindu groups demolished the historic Babri Masjid (mosque) in December 1992. Defying a court order, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), Bajrang Dal and other extremists now part of the BJP coalition announced that the Kar-sewaks (activists) would assemble in Ayodhya (formerly Faizabad) and prepare to build the Ram Temple on the site of the destroyed mosque. Construction is scheduled to start March 15.

The BJP, led by Prime Minister Vajpayee and Home Minister L.K. Advani, remained tight-lipped in advance of the February elections in UP. Now, however, after meeting with other political parties, the BJP has urged the UP government to stop efforts to construct the temple. But the VHP and Bajrang Dal have decided to defy the government and are determined to carry out their plan come March 15th. Thousands of Kar-sewaks from all over the country have been assembling in Ayodhya to start the construction work. The air is charged with provocative slogans against India’s minorities, particularly the Muslims. A train full of slogan-hurling Sewaks was torched near Gujarat province and 56 people reportedly were burned to death. In retaliation, Hindu extremists attacked Muslims in several areas of Gujarat and the city of Ahmedabad, with hundreds reported dead in many parts of the country. Tension remains unabated and may take on an even uglier turn in several parts of India as March 15 nears.

This presents UP’s newly elected government with an enormous problem. It is not inconceivable that Prime Minister Vajpayee may take the internal unrest and the massing of troops along the India-Pakistan borders as an excuse to remain in power. Following the BJP debacle in several state elections and by-elections, there are calls for Vajpayee to resign and announce new general elections. Whether this happens or not, the next few weeks will be interesting to watch. One hopes they will not be too deadly.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a consultant with the United Nations Development Program and a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.