September-October 2011, Page 64

Waging Peace

Potential for Peace in Palestine?

The Middle East Policy Council's 65th Capitol Hill Conference, "Arab and Israeli Peace Initiatives: A Last Chance for Negotiations?" examined potential developments in the Middle East peace process. The July 25 event was moderated by MEPC executive director Thomas R. Mattair.

Shibley Telhami, professor at the University of Maryland, argued that the backbone of Israeli foreign policy is its close relationship with the United States. In times of uncertainty or fluidity in international politics, Israel's top priority is always to secure its strategic relationship with the U.S. The recent Arab uprisings have made Israel's attachment to the U.S. stronger, he stated, especially as an uncertain political future tests Egypt's peace treaty with Israel. "The Arab Peace Initiative is worth twice as much now as in 2002," said Telhami, arguing that it would serve to revalidate the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.

Dr. Scott Lasensky, a senior research associate with the U.S. Institute of Peace, outlined the Israeli Peace Initiative—a project that an "impressive" group of people have signed on to, he said, including academics, diplomats, business leaders and political figures. The initiative approximates the "consensus ideas" of the Clinton plan and of President Barack Obama's May 19 speech, such as a return to the 1967 borders and a shared Jerusalem. The initiative—called Israel Yozemet, or Israel Initiates—is new, however, Lasensky said, as it approaches the conflict in a comprehensive and broad regional framework.

Lasensky, who earned his Ph.D. in international relations from Brandeis University and advised both the Obama-Biden and Gore-Lieberman presidential campaigns on Middle East issues, spoke of the nervousness in Israel surrounding the Arab Spring. While Israelis may support democracy in the abstract, he said, day-to-day pragmatism has them worried about the changes sweeping the region. Touching on the general trend to the right and rising intolerance in Israeli society, Lasensky cited as an example the recent ban on boycotting settlement goods. Israel is "hungry for heroes, hungry for vision," he concluded.

Dr. Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, focused on the expected Palestinian Authority (PA) application for full U.N. membership in the fall. This initiative came out of the PA's frustration at its lack of agency within the peace process, he said, which depends on Israeli enthusiasm and on U.S. efforts. Bringing the issue of Palestinian statehood in front of the U.N. proves that the PA has alternative ways of moving forward, Ibish pointed out. If the U.S. vetoes the effort as expected, he cautioned, there will be huge potential consequences. Since the February U.S. veto on a Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlements, both Palestinian and international responses to continued settlement growth have been muted.

The potential retaliation to a declaration of statehood also carries tremendous economic weight: Congress has threatened to cut off U.S. aid to the Palestinians. Ibish suggested the possibility of Palestine becoming a non-member state as an alternative to full membership, a development that would both save face for the PA and result in greater privileges for it within the U.N. This would be a positive development, he said, as all 16 non-member states in the history of the U.N. are now member states.

Dr. Graeme Bannerman, a scholar at the Middle East Institute and founder of the international consulting firm Bannerman Associates, offered brief remarks on the effect of regional developments on the Israeli-Arab peace process. He outlined the events that led to the signing of the Camp David and Oslo agreements. Today, he said, the Arab Spring, shifting public opinion in Europe, and changing demographics in Israel and Palestine show the need for renewed negotiations.

To watch the entire event, visit <www.mepc.org/hill-forums/arab-and-israeli-peace-initiatives-last-chance-negotiations>.

—Alia Lahlou